Three Big Pigs by Egor Zhgun

What's Next For Egypt?

The crowd in Cairo is jubilant!!  But, as much as they are wishing for democracy and freedom is this a be careful what you wish for moment?  The Egyptians have ousted Mubarak so what exactly lies in their future?  Does Egypt have the structure in place to be able to start a democracy?  Or is a Khumeini-like individual going to emerge to the forefront and misrepresent himself as being for the people like Khumeini did in Iran?   While I do see some signs of hope for the Egyptians' future I find it eerily similar due to the fact that this revolution and ousting of Mubarak the dictator happened on exactly the 32nd anniversary of the Shah falling in Iran.  Plus, we had a pro-Big Government president in 1979, named Jimmy Carter who royally screwed up our relations with the Middle East and now we have Obama who is an Ultra pro-Big Government president who is royally screwing up our Middle East relations again.  In addition, the way that both Carter interacted with the Middle East's leaders in the past and how Obama is interacting with Middle East leaders today, in screwing our allies while appeasing our enemies I wonder whose interests he's really looking out for?  It certainly doesn't look like Obama is looking out for America's best interests today.

I think that this is a momentous occasion which gives the people of Egypt the possibility of following the model of freedom and democracy, following in Iraq's footsteps.  As I was watching the news coverage of people shouting in the streets cheering in the streets shouting the word freedom in celebration of Mubarak having stepped down I saw in particular one person who said that he wanted democracy, that he wanted to follow the model of deomcracy in Iraq and I couldn't help but wonder whether Geroge W. Bush had a hand in today's events.  Without George Bush having the courage to stand up for freedom, not merely spouting words like other politicians,  would Iraq have become a beacon of democracy of freedom in the Middle East?  He was willing to walk the walk instead of just talking the talk and he toppled a ruthless dictator. Without Bush having initiated a democracy in Iraq would any of these uprisings in the Middle East and Africa have occurred?  Would they have had any hope to topple their leader who was oppressing them?  Hopefully, terrorist organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorist sympathizers won't take advantage of this chaotic situation and fill the vacuum.  Now the military holds the keys and the future of Egypt is in the palm of the military's hand.

I thought it would be a good idea to look up Egypt's background on history, government makeup, demographics, and resources so here is a brief summary from the CIA World Factbook:

Background:

The regularity and richness of the annual Nile River flood, coupled with semi-isolation provided by deserts to the east and west, allowed for the development of one of the world's great civilizations. A unified kingdom arose circa 3200 B.C., and a series of dynasties ruled in Egypt for the next three millennia. The last native dynasty fell to the Persians in 341 B.C., who in turn were replaced by the Greeks, Romans, and Byzantines. It was the Arabs who introduced Islam and the Arabic language in the 7th century and who ruled for the next six centuries. A local military caste, the Mamluks took control about 1250 and continued to govern after the conquest of Egypt by the Ottoman Turks in 1517. Following the completion of the Suez Canal in 1869, Egypt became an important world transportation hub, but also fell heavily into debt. Ostensibly to protect its investments, Britain seized control of Egypt's government in 1882, but nominal allegiance to the Ottoman Empire continued until 1914. Partially independent from the UK in 1922, Egypt acquired full sovereignty with the overthrow of the British-backed monarchy in 1952. The completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1971 and the resultant Lake Nasser have altered the time-honored place of the Nile River in the agriculture and ecology of Egypt. A rapidly growing population (the largest in the Arab world), limited arable land, and dependence on the Nile all continue to overtax resources and stress society. The government has struggled to meet the demands of Egypt's growing population through economic reform and massive investment in communications and physical infrastructure.

Natural Resources:

Petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, phosphates, manganese, limestone, gypsum, talc, asbestos, lead, rare earth elements, zinc

Population:

80,471,869 (July 2010 est.) 

Religions: 

Muslim (mostly Sunni) 90%, Coptic 9%, other Christian 1%

Independence:

28 February 1922 (from UK protectorate status; the revolution that began 23 July 1952 led to a republic being declared on 18 June 1953 and all British troops withdrawn 18 June 1956); note - it was in ca. 3200 B.C. that the Two Lands of Upper (southern) and Lower (northern) Egypt were first united politically

Constitution:

11 September 1971; amended 22 May 1980, 25 May 2005, and 26 March 2007

Legal system:

Based on Islamic and civil law (particularly Napoleonic codes); judicial review by Supreme Court and Council of State (oversees validity of administrative decisions); accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction with reservations

Executive branch:

Chief of state: President Mohamed Hosni MUBARAK (since 14 October 1981); Vice President Omar SOLIMAN (since 31 January 2011)  This has changed. 


Head of government: Prime Minister Ahmed SHAFIK (since 31 January 2011);Deputy Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein TANTAWI (since 1 February 2011) I believe he is the person in power now. 


Cabinet: Cabinet appointed by the president; note - a new cabinet was sworn in on 31 January 2011

Elections: president elected by popular vote for a six-year term (no term limits); note - a national referendum in May 2005 approved a constitutional amendment that changed the presidential election to a multicandidate popular vote; previously the president was nominated by the People's Assembly and the nomination was validated by a national, popular referendum; last referendum held on 26 September 1999; first election under terms of the constitutional amendment held on 7 September 2005 (next scheduled for 2011)
election results: Hosni MUBARAK reelected president; percent of vote - Hosni MUBARAK 88.6%, Ayman NOUR 7.6%, Noman GOMAA 2.9%

Legislative branch:

Bicameral system consists of the Advisory Council or Majlis al-Shura (Shura Council) that traditionally functions only in a consultative role (264 seats; 176 members elected by popular vote, 88 appointed by the president; members serve six-year terms; mid-term elections for half of the elected members) and the People's Assembly or Majlis al-Sha'b (518 seats; 508 members elected by popular vote, 64 seats reserved for women, 10 appointed by the president; members serve five-year terms)

elections: Advisory Council - last held in June 2007 (next to be held in 2013); People's Assembly - last held in November-December 2010 in one round of voting and one run-off election (next to be held in 2015)

election results: Advisory Council - percent of vote by party - NA; seats by party - NDP 80, Al-Geel 1, Nasserist 1, NWP 1, Tagammu 1, Tomorrow Party 1, independents 3; People's Assembly - percent of vote by party - NA; seats by party - NDP 419, NWP 6, Tagammu 5, Democratic Peace Party 1, Social Justice Party 1, Tomorrow Party 1, independents 71, seats undecided 4, seats appointed by president 10

Judicial branch:

Supreme Constitutional Court

Political parties and leaders:

Al-Geel; Democratic Peace Party; Nasserist Party [Ahmed HASSAN]; National Democratic Party or NDP (governing party) [Mohamed Hosni MUBARAK]; National Progressive Unionist Grouping or Tagammu [Rifaat EL-SAID]; New Wafd Party or NWP [Sayed EL-BEDAWY]; Social Justice Party [Mohamed Abdel Al HASAN]; Tomorrow Party [Ayman NOURI]
note: formation of political parties must be approved by the government; only parties with representation in elected bodies are listed

Political pressure groups and leaders:

Muslim Brotherhood (technically illegal)
note: despite a constitutional ban against religious-based parties and political activity, the technically illegal Muslim Brotherhood constitutes Egypt's most potentially significant political opposition; President MUBARAK has alternated between tolerating limited political activity by the Brotherhood and blocking its influence (its members compete as independents in elections but do not currently hold any seats in the legislature); civic society groups are sanctioned, but constrained in practical terms; only trade unions and professional associations affiliated with the government are officially sanctioned; Internet social networking groups and bloggers.

In my next post on Egypt I will focus on why the Muslim Brotherhood must not be allowed to have a place in Egypt's government and expose just how dangerous the organization really is.


This is a tumultuous situation which calls for our thoughts and prayers.

UPDATED: Egyptian Protests, Violence Timeline and Links

UPDATED:  Egypt cabinet has formally resigned

                     Is Egypt Mideast's Poland? 

From Amb. John Bolton: Is Democracy coming to Egypt at last? 

                  Is the Muslim Brotherhood positioned to take over? 
      
                 Egypt: Live streaming video of unrest in Egypt at Reaganite Republican 

            A CNN photographer had her 'Camera Smashed'

                Egyptians demand a better life

Instapundit points out that Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Middle East

Dr. Michael Youssef who was born in Egypt will appear on several CNN programs between 5pm and 10pm tonight.


Now, I don't know who is in the right or wrong - the Egyptian government or the Egyptians - but I do hope that this violence stops.  It may be a combination of both.  I do know that there has been Christian persecution and Christians have also been targets of violence more prevalently in recent times in Egypt.  Unfortunately, these violent protests could cause a spike in our oil prices.  I am really hoping and praying that this violence stops soon.  Mubarak does seem like a tyrant since he has ordered ElBaradei to be under house arrest.

Here is the updated timeline from CNN:

Updated 6:15 p.m. (0115 in Egypt)] President Mubarak's announcement that he was going to dissolve the government Saturday did not sit well with some protesters.

"Mubarak just blamed the government. We will continue our demonstrations until we get our full demands. We want him to leave. His time is over," said Ahmed, a 19-year-old law student demonstrator in Central Alexandria's Raml Square.

"We are one of the richest Arab countries and we want to live. Let a new government form but if we don't get what we ask for, we will go back to the streets again and again," said Mohammed, a 20- year-old student.

[Updated 5:45 p.m. (0045 in Egypt)] Protesters in the streets of Cairo are calling for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to leave, chanting in unison "we don't want him." The people in the streets represent all walks of life, from young people to families with children, CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports.

[Updated 5:31 p.m. (0031 in Egypt)] Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak says he has asked the government to resign so he can appoint a new government Saturday. He gave no indication that he would step down or leave the country.

[Updated 5:27 p.m. (0027 in Egypt)] President Hosni Mubarak said he is "on the side of the people" and vowed to take steps to guarantee the rights and freedom of Egyptians, develop job opportunities and to "stand by the poor."

He said early Saturday he sees a fine line "between freedom and chaos" and that he would work to secure both freedom and security in Egypt.

"I assure you that I'm working for the people and giving freedom... as long as you're respecting the law," he said.

"I am absolutely on the side of the freedom of each citizen and at the same time I am on the side of the security of Egypt, and I would not let anything dangerous happen that would threaten the peace and the law and the future of the country."

[Updated 5:16 p.m. (0016 in Egypt)] President Hosni Mubarak is expected to speak soon, state-run Nile TV reports. Mubarak has not made any public appearances today.

[Updated 5:09 p.m. (0009 in Egypt)] It's just after midnight in Egypt and people are still milling about the streets in defiance of a government curfew, but activity has calmed, CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports. Riot police appear to have withdrawn from the streets of Cairo and Alexandria after several hours of confrontation with protesters, and in their place the Egyptian Army has taken up presence, guarding government buildings.

State-run media reports that an "important statement" will be given later Friday in Egypt.

[Updated 4:58 p.m. (2358 in Egypt)] Thirteen people have died and 75 were injured in Suez, Egypt, Nile TV reported Friday, citing medical sources.

[Updated 4:51 p.m. (2351 in Egypt)] U.S. stocks plunged Friday - with the Dow industrial average falling 166 points, its largest loss since November, and the Nasdaq exchange losing 3% of its value - as investors grew nervous about political unrest in Egypt.

[Updated 4:35 p.m. (2335 in Egypt)] As public protests against the Mubarak regime spread from Cairo to New York City, Egyptian-American activists on Friday called on the Obama adminstration to back the "Lotus Revolution" to oust the authoritarian ruler. They also called on President Hosni Mubarak's government to end its purported practices of detentions, torture and "extrajudicial killings."

[Updated 4:00 p.m. (2300 in Egypt)] An iReporter visiting Egypt shot this videofrom his hotel room of demonstrators swarming three Army vehicles as they drove down the street.

[Updated 3:52 p.m. (2252 in Egypt)] The United States will review its aid to Egypt based on what is happening there now, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Friday.

[Updated 3:31 p.m. (2231 in Egypt)] Egyptian military officials have cut short their talks at the Pentagon to head back to northern Africa, according to Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff. Their meetings with their U.S. military counterparts had been scheduled to continue through Wednesday.

[Updated 3:20 p.m. (2222 in Egypt)] The White House has been in touch with the Egyptian government but U.S. President Barack Obama has not spoken with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in a briefing.

"We are deeply concerned about the images and events we see in Egypt today. We monitor those events closely; the security personnel need to refrain from violence, protesters should refrain from violence," he said.

"The legitimate grievances that have festered for quite some time in Egypt have to be addressed by the Egyptian government immediately, and violence is not the response. Space has to be created for meaningful dialogue that addresses those very legitimate grievances."

[Updated 2:56 p.m. (2156 in Egypt)] The building housing the offices of the National Democratic Party, Egypt's ruling party, was burned and ransacked by demonstrators in Cairo on Friday, Nile TV is reporting. A CNN source saw the building burning.

[Updated 2:52 p.m. (2152 in Egypt)] CNN's Steve Kastenbaum spoke with a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco and a Mideast adviser to several presidential administrations about the conditions that led to these demonstrations and where they might spread. 

[Updated 2:41 p.m. (2141 in Egypt)] A reporter for the BBC was bloodied but returned to the air, bandage in place. 

[Updated 2:25 p.m. (2125 in Egypt)] Delta Airlines tells CNN it will have a flight departing Cairo on Saturday and then suspend service to the Egyptian capital indefinitely as a result of the civil unrest.

[Updated 2:21 p.m. (2121 in Egypt)] Alexis Madrigal, a senior editor at The Atlantic, published late Thursday what is purported to be a guide to Egyptians on how to protest on Friday. The pamphlet includes strategies for taking over government buildings and diagrams showing how to fend off riot police. Read Madrigal's report and see how the pamphlet looks here. a

[Updated 2:03 p.m. (2103 in Egypt)] The U.S. State Department has issued a travel alert regarding the unrest in Egypt. It cites disrupted travel between cities and the government's interruption of internet and cell phone service. "Given this situation, the Department of State urges U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel to Egypt at this time and advises U.S. citizens currently in Egypt to defer non-essential movement and to exercise caution," the alert states.

[Updated 1:39 p.m. (2039 in Egypt)] Several high-ranking Egyptian military officials were in the Pentagon on Friday for a previously scheduled visit, CNN's Chris Lawrence reports. They're attending the annual U.S.-Egypt Military Cooperation Committee meetings to discuss military training, security assistance and defense industrial cooperation.

[Updated 1:33 p.m. (2033 in Egypt)] A pair of CNN iReporters sent impressive video of demonstrators forcing riot police to retreat across the Kasr Al Nile Bridge. 

[Updated 1:25 p.m. (2025 in Egypt)] The Egyptian government has ordered cell phone companies to shut down service in selected areas, Vodafone says, adding that it is obliged by law to comply with the order.

[Updated 1:19 p.m. (2047 in Egypt)] Demonstrators in Cairo surrounded a military vehicle, but they were cheering the army, a respected institution in Egypt.

Tanks Sent Into Cairo 

Five People Killed During Protests 

Violence Escalates as Protesters Torch Ruling Party's Headquarters

Egyptian Military deploys in streets under curfew

Joe Biden says Egyptian leader Mubarak is no dictator, he shouldn't step down

Bluepitbull says If we lose Mubarak then we're screwed

Weasel Zippers reports that Mubarak asks cabinet to resign

Maggie's Notebook posted Mohamed Elbaradei under Cairo arrest

American Perspective posted that Egyptians were hosed down during prayers

TOTUS posted on Chaos in Egypt 

Nonsensible Shoes posted Dictator watch: Egypt on the brink

Landshark 5150 says WOW!!! this could be the spark of the blaze to come. 

Virtual Mirage posted Crisis in Egypt & Social Media 

Gateway Pundit has updated that the President of Egypt says "I Will Not Allow Escalating Violence" 

If you know of anymore links please let me know and I will post them.